女士們、先生們，親愛的朋友們：
我叫雷米夏（Michael Leh）。我是一名常駐柏林的記者，也是總部位於美因河畔法蘭克福的「國際人權協會」（IGFM）執行委員會成員。我於2002年首次造訪台灣，自那時起，這座迷人島嶼的命運便始終縈繞在我的心頭。我上一次造訪台灣是在2022年7月，當時是陪同擔任歐洲議會副議長的德國人尼古拉·貝爾（Nicola Beer，自民黨/FDP）前往，時間就在南希·佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）訪台前夕。我們一行人與多位政要舉行了會談，包括蔡英文總統、外交部長吳釗燮博士（現任國家安全會議秘書長）以及時任行政院長蘇貞昌。就在幾個月前的2022年2月24日，俄羅斯入侵了烏克蘭。這場殘酷的入侵行動佔據了我們在台北討論的很大一部分。貝爾副議長在談到中華人民共和國時明確表示：「絕不能讓台灣重演『2月24日』那樣的悲劇。」
俄羅斯那些充滿殺戮的攻擊——包括針對烏克蘭平民的攻擊——所造成的後果，我們每天都能在媒體上看到。我與烏克蘭著名的諾貝爾和平獎得主亞歷山德拉·馬特維丘克（Oleksandra Matviichuk）相識。這位居住在基輔、才華洋溢的人權律師於2022年榮獲諾貝爾獎。早在2021年，我就曾在柏林與她會面；當時，她正陪同兩位曾遭俄羅斯方面在烏克蘭東部城市頓內茨克拘押並施以酷刑的烏克蘭前政治犯。
今天是諾貝爾和平獎得主劉曉波逝世九週年紀念日，我特意聯繫了亞歷山德拉，告知她這一情況，並向她發送了我們研討會的日程安排。
受諾貝爾和平獎得主亞歷珊卓·馬特維丘克之託，我謹向在座各位致以誠摯的問候，共同紀念諾貝爾和平獎得主劉曉波。她預祝我們的活動圓滿成功，同時也向今晚即將獲頒人權獎項的張展和羅蘭·庫納（Roland Kühne）牧師表示祝賀。
我還再次向奧克桑德拉·馬特維丘克寄送了一份劉曉波那份具有里程碑意義的《零八憲章》。我非常欽佩馬特維丘克，她長期以來一直作為事實上的全球大使，致力於推動本國的人權事業。她的講座、演講、聲明和訪談，對於提升外界對烏克蘭局勢（包括俄羅斯佔領區狀況）的關注與理解，發揮了巨大作用。我確信，她同時也始終密切關注著世界其他地區的人權議題。鑑於俄羅斯持續不斷的飛彈和無人機攻擊——包括針對基輔的攻擊——我時刻為她的安危擔憂，並衷心祈禱她能免於此類攻擊。
任教於諾丁漢大學的德國漢學家兼政治學家安德烈亞斯·富爾達（Andreas Fulda），今年出版了一部德語著作，題為《當中國發動攻擊時》（*Wenn China angreift*）。富爾達擔心，德國在處理對華關係時，正重蹈其2022年前對俄政策的覆轍。他在書中運用了小說般的筆觸和豐富的同理心想像力，描繪了中國可能對台灣發動攻擊的情境。
儘管這部作品屬於虛構敘事，但其中所描述的許多內容卻顯得相當切合實際。富爾達（Fulda）生於1977年，曾在兩岸（中國大陸與台灣）生活和工作，對當前的政治局勢瞭如指掌。在虛構情節之後，書中還包含了一些闡述事實論點的章節——正如他所言，這是「虛構背後的事實」。富爾達撰寫這本書，既是為了讓德國大眾了解台灣所面臨的威脅，也是為了揭示一旦發生此類攻擊，將為德國帶來的政治與經濟後果。該書旨在發出警示，力求協助防止戰爭爆發。這本書在德國迅速成為暢銷書。富爾達無疑已成功引發了人們對台灣問題的新一輪關注。這一點尤其重要，因為俄羅斯在歐洲腹地發動的對烏克蘭的侵略戰爭佔據了德國輿論的大量關注，使得台灣問題顯得格外遙遠。
德國需要製定一項新的對台政策──即明確且及時地向中國表明，武力攻台將付出高昂代價。正如富爾達所言，我也認為德國不應再將向台灣提供武器視為禁區。此舉旨在增強台灣的威懾能力。在2022年之前，向烏克蘭提供武器曾被視為禁忌，結果導致錯失良機，為時已晚。德國的潛艦或潛艦相關技術能為台灣提供助力；各類所謂的「軍民兩用物資」──也就是既可用於民用也可用於軍事領域的技術──同樣能發揮作用。
德國在外交層面孤立台灣的狀況應有所緩解。如果德國教育部長訪問台灣，她理應能會見台灣的總統。既然捷克議長曾獲准在台灣立法院發表演說（事實也確實如此），那麼德國議長也應獲准這樣做。德國不能一方面空談「基於共同價值觀的伙伴關係」，另一方面卻將台灣的民主人士視為避之唯恐不及的「麻瘋病人」。德國必須降低對中國的經濟依賴，以減少自身遭受勒索的風險。
一味卑躬屈膝並不能安撫侵略者，反而會助長其進一步的侵略行徑。溫斯頓邱吉爾曾這樣評價那些錯誤的綏靖政策：「綏靖者就是那種餵養鱷魚的人，指望鱷魚最後一個吃掉自己。」
如今，俄羅斯與中國這兩隻「鱷魚」甚至在歐洲針對烏克蘭的戰爭中聯手合作。我不願被它們中的任何一方吞噬，也希望台灣能作為一個自由民主的國家生存下去。
Ninth Anniversary of Liu Xiaobo’s Passing
Inaugural Liu Xiaobo Human Rights Award Ceremony and Symposium on Constitutional Democracy in China / July 13, Leipzig
What can Germany do to help prevent a Chinese attack on Taiwan? / Michael Leh
Ladies and gentlemen, dear friends,
my name is Michael Leh. I am a journalist based in Berlin and a member of the Executive Board of the International Society for Human Rights (IGFM), which is headquartered in Frankfurt / Main. I first visited Taiwan in 2002, and since then, the fate of this fascinating island has never left my thoughts. I was last there in July 2022, accompanied by the then-German Vice President of the European Parliament, Nicola Beer (FDP), shortly before Nancy Pelosi’s visit. Together, we held talks with, among others, President Tsai Ing-Wen, Foreign Minister Dr. Joseph Wu—the current National Security Advisor—and then-Prime minister Su Tseng-chang. A few months earlier, on February 24, 2022, Russia had invaded Ukraine. This brutal invasion already took up a large part of our discussions in Taipei. Vice President Beer stated, with regard to the People’s Republic of China: “There must never be a February 24 like that for Taiwan.”
The consequences of Russia’s murderous attacks—including those targeting the civilian population in Ukraine—can be seen every day in the media. I personally know the great Ukrainian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviicuk. This smart human rights lawyer, who lives in Kyiv, was awarded the Nobel Prize in 2022. I had already met her in Berlin in 2021 while she was accompanying two former Ukrainian political prisoners who had been detained and tortured by the Russians in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk.
Since today marks the ninth anniversary of the death of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo, I contacted Oleksandra, informed her of this, and sent her the program for our symposium.
On behalf of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Oleksandra Matviichuk, I would like to warmly greet all of you here today on the occasion of the commemoration of Nobel Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo. She wishes our event every success and also congratulates Zhang Zhan and Pastor Roland Kühne on the human rights award they will receive this evening.
I also sent Oleksandra Matviichuk a copy of Liu Xiaobo’s groundbreaking “Charter 08” once again. Oleksandra Matviichuk, whom I greatly admire, has long served as a de facto global ambassador for her country’s human rights cause. Her lectures, speeches, statements, and interviews contribute greatly to raising awareness and fostering understanding of the situation in Ukraine, including the situation in the Russian-occupied territories. I am certain that she always has an open ear for human rights issues in other regions of the world as well. In light of the ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks—including those on Kyiv—I am always worried for her and fervently hope that she will never be hit as well.
The German sinologist and political scientist Andreas Fulda, who teaches at the University of Nottingham, published a book in German this year titled *Wenn China angreift* (When China Attacks). Fulda fears that Germany is making the same mistakes with China as it did in its policy toward Russia before 2022. In his book, he uses a novelistic style and a great deal of empathetic imagination to describe the scenario of a possible attack on Taiwan.
Despite the fictional nature of the narrative, much of what he describes does not seem unrealistic. Born in 1977, Fulda has lived and worked in both China and Taiwan and is very familiar with the current political situation. The fictional portion of his book is followed by chapters presenting factual arguments—“facts behind the fiction,” as he writes. Fulda’s aim is to educate the German public about the dangers facing Taiwan, but also about the political and economic consequences such an attack would have for Germany as well. His book is intended as a warning, with the goal of helping to prevent a war. The book quickly became a bestseller in Germany. Fulda has certainly already succeeded in drawing new attention to Taiwan. This is particularly important because Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine in the heart of Europe is absorbing much of the attention in Germany, and Taiwan seems particularly far away.
Germany needed a new Taiwan policy—one that makes it clear to China, and in a timely manner, that the price of an attack on Taiwan would be very high. Like Fulda, I, too, believe that German arms deliveries to Taiwan should no longer be off-limits. The goal is to strengthen Taiwan’s deterrence capabilities. Arms deliveries to Ukraine were off-limits before 2022—until it was too late. German submarines, or submarine technology in general, could be helpful for Taiwan. So could various so-called dual-use goods. That is, technology that can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
The extent of Taiwan’s diplomatic isolation in Germany should be reduced. If a German minister of education flies to Taiwan, she must also be able to pay a visit to the Taiwanese president. If, as has happened, a Czech parliamentary speaker can deliver a speech in the Taiwanese parliament, then a German parliamentary speaker should also be permitted to do so. One cannot casually speak of a “partnership based on shared values” and then treat Taiwanese democrats like lepers. Germany’s economic dependence on China must be reduced so that it is less vulnerable to blackmail.
Constant kowtowing does not appease the aggressor but encourages further aggression. Winston Churchill said of misguided appeasement policies: “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last.”
Right now, the two “crocodiles”—Russia and China—are even working together in the war against Ukraine in Europe. I don’t want to be devoured by either of them, and I hope that Taiwan, too, will survive as a free and democratic nation.
