（作者按：本文是3月18-19日，柏林舉行的「世界民主論壇」World Forum for Democracy上的一篇英語發言的節譯）
人們往往將台灣的處境跟烏克蘭相比，認為目前的國際局勢——大欺小、強凌弱對台灣很不利。然而從歷史視角來看，二者之間很不相同。1911年孫中山推翻千年帝制，在中國建立了亞洲第一個共和國。1949年內戰原因，國民政府遷台，台灣的中華民國直到1971年都代表整個中國。聯合國2758決議改變了此情況，中共統治的中華人民共和國成為安理會5個成員之一，代表中國。台灣退出聯合國。如今的台灣是亞洲，乃至世界上名列前茅的自由民主國家，民生富裕、社會祥和、言論開放、法制健全。中國依然是一黨專政的威權體制。
川普總統想要急切地終結俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭。他顛倒事實，討好侵略者普京，指責澤連斯基發動了戰爭。儘管美國應當在北約中擔任並發揮主導作用，但他放棄自己這種主導角色要求北約和歐洲國家承擔責任。懸而未決的停火談判能否保證持久和平，似乎不是他真正關心的。川普總統為什麼這麼急？時不我與，中國崛起，印太地區局勢緊迫具有爆炸性，不能再等了。
上世紀五十年代冷戰以來，美國就推出了一種圍堵中、俄等共產主義國家的軍事部署計劃，即島鏈戰略（Island Chain Strategy）。西太平洋沿著東亞大陸沿海，北起日本、琉球、鏈結台灣、菲律賓，南接馬來半島直達馬六甲海峽。台灣在這個被稱為第一島鏈的居中位置，麥克阿瑟將軍曾稱台灣為「不沈的航空母艦」，美第七艦隊長時間在此水域巡航。隨著中美1979年建交，中國開始發展海權，邁向太平洋。本世紀以來中國在南海建立島礁，完成軍事部署，並宣布第一島鏈所在的東海南海等印太水域屬於中國。
如今中國造船業領跑世界，佔50%以上份額。中國海軍發展迅速，擁有的軍艦數超過美國，也能自己製造航空母艦，這些事實令美國趕到巨大壓力。印太地區擁有全球一半以上的人口和全球近三分之二的經濟體量。奧巴馬總統事期就開展了印太戰略，拉攏了日韓紐澳甚至印度等國家來共同設防，心目中早已把中國看成最強大的對手和威脅。他強調印太地區應該是開放的、互聯的、繁榮的、安全的和有彈性的，也就是說不能由一方獨大。那麼美國能坐視台灣成為中國的囊中之物嗎？
多年來，台灣一直面臨中國的軍事威脅和恐嚇。自2022年8月南希·佩洛西訪問台灣以來，中國的威脅不斷升級。它每天派出數十架軍機和軍艦繞台飛行航弋。2024年5月賴清德就任總統，發表演說，強調中國、台灣互不隸屬，中共於是發動所謂「聯合利劍2024 A」的陸海空及火箭軍圍繞台島的軍事演習，以此威嚇台灣軍民。根據台灣國防部統計，2024年，解放軍飛機有5109架次、軍艦有2701艘繞台飛行巡弋，其中大部分都越過台灣海峽中線。難怪台灣海峽被稱為世界上最危險的地方。
除了軍事上的威嚇，國際外交上的圍堵打壓，中國對台灣政界、媒體、商界、文化界的滲透也是全方位的，海底電纜被切斷，台灣官民各個單位的數據庫遭受攻擊，數據戰無日無之。好在台灣朝野能保持鎮定平和的心態面對這些挑戰，不讓恐懼陰霾侵蝕人心。
總所周知，台灣在晶片產業的主導地位，使它成為世界不可或缺的部分。台灣生產了全球 60% 以上的半導體芯片以及 90% 以上的最先進芯片（2 奈米）。近期有護國神山美譽的台積電在美國簽約，將再投資一千億美元在美設廠。然而台積電最重要的基礎技術仍然保留在台灣，如果中國強行吞併台灣，將造成玉石俱焚的結果，這對世界經濟造成的損失和衝擊將不可限量。
美國自1979年以來和台灣簽署了《台灣關係法》，其中規定美國「向台灣提供防禦性武器」，維持自身抵抗武力侵犯的能力。台灣每年向美國購買上億元的武器，台灣軍費預算2025年已達GDP的2.5%。拜登總統曾強調對台灣的承諾堅如磐石，維護台海兩岸與區域的和平穩定。
按照常理和契約精神，美國是應當對台灣信守保護的承諾，這於人於己都是有利的，但是川普上任以來，一切遊戲規則和道義法治都歸零，他背棄盟友，出賣烏克蘭，綏靖獨裁者，與虎謀皮，凡此種種，是一種徵兆，自由世界不能再信任和依賴川普的美國，台灣應當明察局勢，做好強敵來犯的準備。誠如哈維爾所說，世界也不可忽視「無權勢者的力量」（The power of Powerless）。中國有句諺語「哀兵必勝」，願以此話與烏克蘭共勉。
The power of the powerless
(Speech at the World Forum for Democracy, Berlin on March 18-19, 2025)
People often compare Taiwan’s situation to that of Ukraine and believe that the current international situation – in which the big suppress the small and the strong bully the weak – is unfavorable to Taiwan. However, from a historical perspective, the two are very different. In 1911, Dr. Sun Yat-sen overthrew the thousand-year monarchy and established Asia’s first republic in China. Due to the civil war in 1949, the Nationalist Government moved to Taiwan, and the Republic of China in Taiwan represented the entire China in the UN until 1971. The United Nations Resolution 2758 changed this situation, and the People’s Republic of China, ruled by the Communist Party of China, became one of the five members of the Security Council representing China. Taiwan withdrew from the United Nations. Today, Taiwan is one of the top liberal democracies in Asia and even the world, the people live in a prosperous and peaceful society and enjoy freedom of expression, there is press freedom and a sound legal system on the island republic, while China is still an authoritarian system with a one-party dictatorship.
President Trump wants to end the Russia-Ukraine war in a mad rush. He turned the facts upside down to curry favor with Putin, the aggressor, and accused Zelensky of starting the war. Although the United States should assume and play a leading role in NATO, its abandonment of this leading role requires NATO and European countries to take responsibility. Whether the pending ceasefire talks can guarantee a lasting peace is not his real concern.
Why is President Trump so anxious? Times are changing, China is rising, and the situation in the Indo-Pacific region is urgent and explosive. We cannot wait any longer.
Since the Cold War in the 1950s, the United States has launched a military deployment plan to contain communist countries such as China and Russia, known as the Island Chain Strategy. The Western Pacific runs along the coast of the East Asian continent, starting from Japan and Ryukyu in the north, linking Taiwan and the Philippines, and connecting the Malay Peninsula to the south to the Strait of Malacca. Taiwan is in the middle of what is known as the first island chain. General MacArthur once called Taiwan an “unsinkable aircraft carrier.” The US Seventh Fleet has been cruising in these waters for a long time. With the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States in 1979, China began to develop sea power and move towards the Pacific Ocean. Since this century, China has built islands and reefs in the South China Sea, completed military deployments, and declared that the Indo-Pacific waters, including the East China Sea and South China Sea, where the first island chain is located, belong to China.
Today, China’s shipbuilding industry leads the world, accounting for more than 50% of the total. The Chinese navy is developing rapidly. It has more warships than the United States, and it can also build its aircraft carriers. These facts have put great pressure on the United States. The Indo-Pacific region is home to more than half of the world’s population and nearly two-thirds of the world’s economy. President Obama launched the Indo-Pacific strategy during his term of office, attracting countries such as Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and even India to jointly build defenses. China has long been regarded as the most powerful opponent and threat in his mind. He emphasized that the Indo-Pacific region should be open, interconnected, prosperous, secure, and resilient, which means that it cannot be dominated by one party. So can the United States sit back and watch Taiwan become China’s possession?
Taiwan has faced military threats and intimidation from China for years. Since Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022, China’s threats have continued to escalate. It sends dozens of military aircraft and warships to fly around Taiwan every day. In May 2024, Lai Ching-te took office as president and gave a speech emphasizing that China and Taiwan are not affiliated with each other. The CCP then launched the so-called “United Sword 2024 A” military exercise of land, sea, air, and rocket forces around Taiwan Island to intimidate Taiwan’s military and civilians. According to statistics from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, in 2024, the People’s Liberation Army aircraft made 5,109 sorties and 2,701 warships flew and patrolled around Taiwan, most of which crossed the central line of the Taiwan Strait. No wonder the Taiwan Strait is called the most dangerous place in the world.
In addition to military intimidation and international diplomatic containment and suppression, China has also penetrated Taiwan’s political, media, business, and cultural circles in all aspects. Undersea cables have been cut off, and the databases of Taiwan’s government and civilian units have been attacked, and data wars are ongoing. Fortunately, Taiwan’s government and opposition parties can maintain a calm and peaceful attitude in facing these challenges and not let fear and gloom erode people’s hearts.
As we all know, Taiwan’s dominant position in the chip industry has made it an indispensable part of the world. Taiwan produces more than 60% of the world’s semiconductor chips and more than 90% of the most advanced chips (2nm). Recently, TSMC, which has a reputation as a „sacred mountain“ that protects the country, signed a contract in the United States and will invest another US$100 billion to build a series of factories in the United States. However, TSMC’s most important basic technology remains in Taiwan. If China forcibly annexes Taiwan, it will destroy both countries, and the losses and impact on the world economy will be limitless.
The United States has signed the “Taiwan Relations Act” with Taiwan since 1979, which stipulates that the United States “provides defensive weapons to Taiwan” to maintain its ability to resist armed aggression. Taiwan purchases hundreds of millions of dollars in weapons from the United States every year, and Taiwan’s military budget will reach 2.5% of GDP in 2025. President Biden has emphasized his rock-solid commitment to Taiwan and maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and in the region.
According to common sense and the spirit of the contract, the United States should keep its commitment to protect Taiwan, which is beneficial to both others and itself. However, since Trump took office, all rules of the game and the rule of law have returned to zero. He has betrayed allies, betrayed Ukraine, appeased dictators, and become their allies. All of this is a sign that the free world can no longer trust and rely on Trump’s United States. Taiwan should clearly understand the situation and be prepared for the invasion of powerful enemies. As Vaclav Havel said, the world cannot ignore “the power of the powerless“, there is a Chinese proverb, „Soldiers who are in a desperate situation will win”, and I would like to share this with Ukraine.
