Dear Tianqi, distinguished ladies and gentlemen, esteemed colleagues,
Thank you, dear Tianqi, for organizing this important conference. I am grateful to you and to all of you for the honorable invitation and I am pleased to have the opportunity to share some thoughts on the current challenges regarding European and German China policy my distinguished colleagues on this panel. Given the limited time and the outstanding expertise on this panel, let me confine myself to a few points here that, in my view, are often insufficiently considered, particularly in the German discourse.
- Ideas matter: Anne Applebaum, who received the German Book Trade Peace Prize a few days ago, emphasized in her much-discussed acceptance speech that in the face of the seemingly unstoppable rise of autocracies worldwide, the challenge is not only military. This is also a battle against hopelessness, against pessimism, and even against the creeping appeal of autocratic rule, which is sometimes disguised beneath the false language of “peace. She warned of the real temptation of pessimism and complacency, which, like a virus, spreads quickly across borders.
The key insight we can take from Applebaum is the importance of ideas and ideologies in the current global conflict between a new network of autocracies (ranging from Russia to China, North Korea, Iran, and Venezuela) and the political West. I firmly believe that the “West” has dangerously underestimated the power of ideas and ideologies since the end of the Cold war. This is particularly true for significant parts of the German elite, who have only half-heartedly learned the lessons from the debacle of German Russia policy in recent decades. The imperial fantasies openly pursued in Moscow and Beijing are insufficiently understood, as is the increasingly evident axis between Putin and Xi Jinping, which was reflected in Xi’s semi-public comment to Putin in spring 2023: “We’re now witnessing changes that haven’t been seen for more than a century, and we’re pushing them forward together.”
In sum, as Liane Fix from the Council of Foreign Relations recently pointed out; ‘European leaders need to recognize that China’s support for Russia follows a strategic, not merely commercial or economic, logic. By helping sustain Russia’s war in Ukraine, China is undermining European security, preventing a Ukrainian victory that favors the West, and weakening the Western-led world order. At the same time, by propping up Moscow’s expansionism, Beijing is keeping NATO in check and distracting the United States from focusing on the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan. Imposing costs on China for its support for Russia’s military is not only an important political step but also imperative for European and Western security.’ (End of quote)
Taiwan as a test case: Taiwan, like Ukraine, will undoubtedly be a test case for the resilience and self-assertion of the political “West.” However, Europe is hardly prepared for such a scenario. The confrontation between China and Taiwan exemplifies the intensifying global struggle between democracy and authoritarianism. More than ever, it is crucial that Germany engage in a strategic debate—both domestically and in its foreign policy—on the increasingly globalized conflict between the autocracies of China and Russia and the West. Despite progress, such as in the relevant sections of the German government’s China Strategy, we are still far from a coherent German and European approach to the conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Stefan Thome, in his recent book on the history and present of the Taiwan Strait conflict, offers a few excellent broad recommendations for addressing the conflict, which deserve widespread publication and discussion.
Here are just a few key principles:
1. Firmly reject China’s narrative. This means resisting Beijing’s attempts to impose its narrative, for example, regarding the alleged sovereignty of the People’s Republic over Taiwan, and consistently counteracting the distortion of historical facts and the global disinformation machine run by China. When it comes to civic education in Germany, we need a new emphasis on the importance of new geopolitical divisions and challenges for Europa and Germany and, yes, the need for military capabilities and deterrence as well.
- Support for Taiwan within the range of our possibilities : Equally important is providing Taiwan with the maximum possible support within the scope of our abilities. In my view, civil society relations play a central role here, from city partnerships to state-sponsored youth exchanges and study trips—similar to those organized by the Federal Agency for Civic Education (bpb) to Israel over many decades.
- Avoiding provocation: Lastly, it is, of course, important not to use Taiwan to provoke China. How to truly help Taiwan through political visits, for example, should be carefully coordinated between both sides. On a positive note, I am optimistic that economic relations and people-to-people ties between Europe and Taiwan will make a significant leap forward in the coming years.
Thank you for your attention!
Author: Christoph Müller-Hofstede, M.A. , Dialog macht Schule GmbH, Berlin
歐洲和德國對華政策面臨挑戰
幾天前獲得德國圖書貿易和平獎的安妮·阿普爾鮑姆（Anne Aplebaum）在獲獎感言中強調，面對全世界獨裁政權看似不可阻擋的崛起，挑戰不僅僅是軍事方面的。這也是一場與絕望、悲觀主義的鬥爭，也是與隱藏在獨裁統治潛在迷惑人的吸引力的鬥爭，以及對抗「和平」的虛假語言的鬥爭。
阿普爾鮑姆認為，在當前獨裁國家（從俄羅斯到中國、北韓、伊朗和委內瑞拉）與西方政治之間的衝突中，思想和意識形態相當重要。我同意這種看法，自冷戰結束以來，西方低估了思想和意識形態的力量。德國精英們尤其如此，他們只是半心半意地從近幾十年來德俄政策的失敗中吸取了教訓。莫斯科和北京公開追求的帝國幻想，並未驚醒人們。普京和習近平之間日益明顯的軸心也沒有得到充分理解。
德國外交關係委員會的 Liane Fix 最近指出： 「歐洲領導人需要認識到，中國對俄羅斯的支持遵循的是戰略邏輯，而不僅僅是商業或經濟邏輯。透過幫助俄羅斯對烏克蘭發動的戰爭，中國正在破壞歐洲安全，阻止烏克蘭取得有利於西方的勝利，並削弱西方領導的世界秩序。」透過支持莫斯科的擴張主義，北京正在遏制北約，並分散美國對印太和台灣的注意力。
台灣和烏克蘭一樣，可以測試「西方」的韌性和自信。然而，歐洲還沒有為這種情況做好準備。中國和台灣之間的對抗體現了全球民主與威權主義之間日益激烈的鬥爭。德國需要就中國、俄羅斯和西方專制國家之間，日益全球性的衝突進進行思考與戰略辯論。德國對華戰略在某些方面取得了進展，但德國和歐洲在處理台海衝突問題上仍遠未達成協議。斯特凡·托姆（Stefan Thome）在他最近關於台海衝突的歷史和現狀的書中，為解決這一衝突提供了一些出色的建議：
1.拒絕中國對台灣的話語權。例如：「中華人民共和國對台灣擁有主權」，北京對歷史事實進行歪曲並在全球發動虛假信息的廣被。在德國的公民教育中，我們需要強調歐洲和德國的地緣政治與中國是分歧的，我們需要加強軍事能力和威懾力。
2. 在力所能及的範圍內支持台灣：公民社會具有核心力量，這包括友好城市關係、國家資助的青年交流和考察旅行——類似於聯邦公民教育局（bpb）幾十年來組織的以色列活動。
3. 避免挑釁：西方不要利用台灣挑釁中國。透過政治訪問，真正幫助台灣，雙方仔細協調。我認為歐洲和台灣之間的經濟關係和民間關係將在未來幾年取得重大飛躍。
（歐洲之聲翻譯，略有縮減）
