我寫此信是為了表達對台灣永久停運核能反應爐，並加速邁向再生能源轉型的全力支持。這個立場不僅立基於科學證據，也源自於包括我的母國德國在內等多個國家成功邁向永續能源未來的實務經驗。
2011年，我擔任德國聯邦政府於福島核災後成立的「安全能源供應倫理委員會」（Ethics Committee on a Safe Energy Supply）的成員。我們當時的任務是評估核能在德國未來能源供應中的角色。在經過與頂尖科學家、產業界人士及公民團體的廣泛諮詢後，委員會一致建議：在十年內汰除核能，並同時大力投資再生能源。這項決策不僅是道德上的必要，更有堅實的經濟與技術理由支撐。
而這項決策的成果也有目共睹——2011年至2025年間，德國電力生產中再生能源的占比由23%提升至超過54%，增幅達230%。而2011年核能發電占比不到18%，意味著其原本所貢獻的發電量早已被再生能源完全取代。此外，再生能源的擴張顯著減少了對化石燃料的依賴，為氣候保護與能源自主做出了貢獻。
如今，再生能源不僅潔淨，還具成本競爭力。風能與太陽能發電的成本已低於燃煤和燃氣發電，甚至在新設施建造成本計入後，也比核能發電便宜。能源轉型的過程中去說需要在電網升級、儲能系統和備援方案上進行大量前期投資，但一旦基礎設施完善，再生能源長期的發電成本便會低於化石燃料和核能。
德國相對較高的電價並非源於再生能源，而是受全球天然氣價格飆升以及進口電力成本影響。長期趨勢是明確的：再生能源正成為最經濟、最環保、政治上也最穩定的電力來源。
對台灣而言，這段經驗的啟示也同樣清楚：邁向再生能源的轉型是可能的、經濟可行的，且有利於社會的。這條路有助於氣候保護、環境品質與公共衛生；可以降低對進口燃料的依賴，並避免核能帶來的長期風險與成本，包括核廢料處置及潛在的災難事故。最重要的是，這能促成去中心化且具韌性的能源系統，造福地方社區。
要達成這項轉型，需要大量投資與強大的政治意志，但德國的經驗已證明這既可行又有利。我強烈鼓勵台灣把握此機會，優先選擇以再生能源為基礎的未來，而不是重返核能。
轉載自《上報》，翻譯：台灣氣候行動網絡研究中心， 作者為德國波茨坦永續發展研究所RIFS 榮譽科學總監。
原文：
I am writing to express my full support for your initiative to keep Taiwan’s nuclear power reactors permanently shut down and to accelerate the transition toward renewable energy. This position is not only grounded in scientific evidence but also in practical experience from countries such as my home country Germany that have successfully advanced toward a sustainable energy future.
In 2011, I served as a member of the German Federal Government’s Ethics Committee on a Safe Energy Supply, established after the Fukushima disaster. Our task was to assess the future role of nuclear energy in Germany. After extensive consultations with leading scientists, economic stakeholders, and civil society organizations, the Committee reached a consensual recommendation: to phase out nuclear energy within ten years while investing heavily in renewable energy sources. This decision was not only an ethical imperative but also based on sound economic and technological reasoning.
The results speak for themselves. Between 2011 and 2025, Germany’s share of renewable energy in electricity generation rose from 23% to over 54%—an increase of 230%. Nuclear power, which contributed less than 18% in 2011, was more than compensated for by renewables. In addition, the expansion of renewables significantly reduced reliance on fossil fuels, thereby contributing to climate protection and energy sovereignty.
Today, renewable energy is not only clean but also cost-competitive. The production of electricity from wind and solar power is now cheaper than generating electricity from coal or gas and even cheaper than nuclear power when comparing the costs of building new facilities. It is true that the transition requires substantial upfront investment in grid upgrades, storage systems, and backup solutions. However, once this infrastructure is in place, the long-term costs of renewable energy generation are lower than those of fossil or nuclear alternatives.
Germany’s relatively high electricity prices are not a consequence of renewables, but largely due to global gas price spikes and the cost of imported electricity. The long-term trend is clear: renewable energy is becoming the most economical, environmentally sound, and politically stable source of power.
The lessons for Taiwan are evident. A transition to renewable energy is possible, economically viable, and ultimately beneficial for society. It contributes to climate protection, environmental quality, and public health. It reduces dependence on imported fuels and avoids the long-term risks and costs associated with nuclear energy, including waste management and potential catastrophic accidents. Most importantly, it enables a decentralized and resilient energy system that benefits local communities.
Achieving this transformation requires significant investment and strong political will, but the German experience demonstrates that it is both feasible and advantageous. I strongly encourage Taiwan to seize this opportunity and prioritize a renewable-based energy future over a return to nuclear power.
Ortwin Renn：Professor emeritus of Environmental Sociology and Technology Assessment at Stuttgart University and scientific director emeritus at the Research Institute for Sustainability at GFZ (member of the Helmholtz Association), Potsdam , Germany (RIFS)
轉載自《上報》
